The next US Fed meeting is in 20 days. Crypto bulls are expecting a rate cut, which could trigger the price of Bitcoin to a new ATH. Though there is no way to know for sure, the crypto enthusiasts are relying on Jerome Powell’s words to guess the probability. This one indication is responsible for pushing the Bitcoin price above $124,000 and then suppressing it to the current $113,000. This insane volatility liquidated millions of traders holding long positions.
Fed Rate Cut in September
The size of a Federal Reserve rate cut is very important for predicting Bitcoin’s price. When the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points, investors usually see it as steady support for growth, which can push Bitcoin slightly higher without much fear of recession.
A 50-point cut, however, signals a stronger move that may excite traders in the short term, yet it can also raise concern that the economy is in trouble. This mix of possible outcomes shows why the exact size of the cut matters for Bitcoin’s direction.
Fed Rate Cut and Price of Bitcoin
|
Date |
Points |
Federal Funds Rate After Cut |
Bitcoin Price Before Cut |
Bitcoin Price After Cut |
Price Change (%) |
|
July 2019 |
25 BPS |
2.00% – 2.25% |
10000 |
7000 |
-30 |
|
March 2020 |
100 BPS |
0.00% – 0.25% |
8000 |
5000 |
-37.5 |
|
September 2024 |
50 BPS |
4.75% – 5.00% |
58000 |
63000 |
8.6 |
|
November 2024 |
25 BPS |
4.50% – 4.75% |
76000 |
76000 |
0 |
|
December 2024 |
25 BPS |
4.25% – 4.50% |
108000 |
103000 |
-4 |
From the history, Bitcoin’s price changes after Fed rate cuts from 2019 to 2024 show a mixed response. Rate cuts sometimes boost Bitcoin 5-10% due to more liquidity, but dips can happen if economic factors are not right. For September 2025, we can expect small gains followed by a correction.
Also, Traders should not ignore September’s history. On average, Bitcoin delivers negative returns this month, a seasonal pattern may overcome the bullish Bitcoin price predictions despite the ongoing bull market.
Bitcoin Price Prediction in September 2025
Traders are watching September with unusual focus because the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut rates. The latest CME FedWatch data shows an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, with only a small 12.8% chance of no change.
This means the market is expected to remain bullish. If the cut is 25 basis points, Bitcoin could rise by around 3–5% in the short term, and if the Fed surprises with 50 points, the bullish rally could stretch closer to 8–10%, based on the average price move in history. In any case, rate cuts alone will not push Bitcoin anywhere near $200,000. On the technical side, Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after testing key support levels. The daily chart places the price near $112,654, below the 50-day moving average, which now acts as short-term resistance. The swift response after going below $110,000 shows that the buyers are defending that zone.
If the current move holds, the next resistance sits between $116,000 and $118,000, which aligns with the last breakdown zone. If the price can show a clean break above this range, we can enjoy a stronger bullish push toward $124,000 and maybe update the all-time high. If the price fails to hold it up, it can retest the $109,000–$110,000 support area.
Also, there is a huge volume of short positions, and if Bitcoin price reaches back to $124,000, around $15 billion positions will be rekt. The market follows the liquidity, and the exchanges chase such an opportunity.
With a high probability of a Fed rate cut and delicate short positions, it is highly likely that the price of Bitcoin will remain bullish during September and may try to retest its all-time high zone.