The inference made on reading of a logarithmic growth curve that links long-term bottoms and tops shows that Bitcoin would enter temporary overbought zone upon hitting $75,000. The study cautions that it would mark an end to the current bullish rally.
The report further stated:
“Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin could likely continue appreciating gradually in price before ultimately going parabolic and hitting resistance, which will signal the end of its fourth bull market cycle.”
A study of historical price reversals has resulted in some more optimistic forecasts. If other factors remain unchanged and Bitcoin continues to move along the prevailing growth curve then a reversal comparable to earlier market crashes would bring its price to $30,000.
On the basis of suggested bottom, a forecast about the forthcoming market peak can be made using the degree of retracement.
In case Bitcoin reverses 70% during the prevailing cycle, the price of cryptocurrency should attain a fresh high of $102,000 to reach the aforesaid bottom of $30,000. Likewise, a 90% decline would peg the next high at $306,000, while a 86% decrease, the average decline of earlier market cycles would mean a forthcoming market high of $221,000. In any manner, as per the report, history indicates Bitocin currently trades “far and away” from the next market high.
Studying the historical info again, the first quarter of 2021 has turned out to be the third best quarter in terms of performance in the 12-year history of Bitcoin, with respect to yield and annualized volatility.
Kraken’s study indicates that March is not a good month for Bitcoin, in general. In its decade long history, the crypto’s price ended with gains only twice in March. On average, in March, Bitcoin has lost 11% of gains made in February.
The report also pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is now moving in a way comparable to the one seen in 1Q2013, the best first-quarter so far in the history of the numero uno crypto.
Additionally, a correlation of 0.82 between both is a positive sign and could undermine the historic movement with underperformance in March.
Bitcoin has posted five successive months of positive yield, at the time of media release. Only once, a similar record of that magnitude was seen in 2017, just before the bull run began and peaked in January 2018.