Prediction Market Becomes Hyperactive as Trump Confirms COVID-19 Infection
Prediction markets are seeing a huge rush in activity, following news reports of US President Donald Trump testing positive for Covid-19.
One of the morbid forecasts drawing attention is on the centralized platform, PredictIt, operated by the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.
Posing the query “Will Donald Trump complete his first term?” the forecast was initially aimed as a way of assessing the chances of Trump leaving office after getting impeached.
Nevertheless, interest started rising after reports of Hope Charlotte Hicks, public relations executive and political advisor to Trump, tested positive for coronavirus and the president went through the test.
Daily volume surged from a weekly average of about $6,000 to more than $37,000. A major share of bets were placed on “No” as the “Yes” price declined by $0.04 to $0.82.
Soon after the US President confirmed that he has contracted Covid-19, the price of “Yes” came down by another $0.04 to $0.78. A week before, the “Yes” option was traded at $0.90.
For clear understanding, the specific guidelines of the prediction market stated that “Temporary incapacity resulting in the temporary transfer of authority to an acting president shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.”
As there is no longer the likelihood of impeachment, by placing a bet on “No”, speculators are basically expecting Trump to die. The 70yr old Trump, who is regarded as an obese person, obviously falls into high risk category. The US President and Melania are presently secluded themselves and going through quarantine process at the White House, with temporary suspension of election campaign.
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020