After updating its all time high to $124,000, bitcoin exhibited buyer exhaustion, and the sell-off pressure pushed the price below the critical level of $110,000 within days. The profit taking at the top caused a cascade of red candles, and the price dropped to $107,280 on September 1st, 2025. The price then started recovering. As the Fed meeting neared, the high odds of a rate cut pushed the price above the resistance levels.
The Fed announced a minimal rate cut of 25 bps, not as high as expected by the crypto community. Nevertheless, the post-rate-cut rally pushed the price of Bitcoin to $117,900. However, due to local price correction, Bitcoin’s current price is $115,600 with a market cap of $2.31 trillion.
Bitcoin is trading within a defined range, with resistance at $118,000, while $113,000 is acting as a balance, a local support for Bitcoin. Buyers are defending $110k to $108k. A daily close above $118,000 would mean the Bitcoin price is finally bullish.
Bitcoin Buyers are Exhausting:
Buyer exhaustion occurs when fresh demand thins after an advance, price still prints upticks, volume and breadth no longer confirm. Buyer exhaustion is visible through multiple indicators, including lower highs on declining volume, long upper wicks at resistance, rising taker-sell volume versus taker-buy, and shallow bounces that fail near prior breakout levels. In short, the price wants to show a bullish behavior, but it gets rejected at the resistance levels due to the lack of sustainable buying inflows.
The current Bitcoin chart shows multiple liquidity gaps waiting to be filled on the bearish side. There are areas with liquidity at 113k, 112k, 110k, 108k, 106k, and even at 105k on a 4-hour chart. The exchanges would tend to move the price in that direction. Also, the indicators are showing clear divergence on the larger timeframes. As the retail traders chase the bearish trend, the price may start its downward journey at any point and may rest near the $80k area.
Bitcoin Unrealized Profits Peak
Bitcoin’s unrealized profits are at their peak. Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, measures the extent to which the network is based on paper gains versus paper losses.
NUPL is very positive and rising, which means the market is carrying large paper profits. That setup brings distribution at resistance and causes late entries to face supply, while pullbacks trigger faster profit-taking. Suppose NUPL starts rolling over while the price ranges and distribution strengthen. In simple words, there are a lot of people sitting with unrealized profit, and if they start cashing out, the price would crumble.
Long vs Short Futures
Bulls are expecting the price to rise, and that is visible on the futures markets like Hyperliquid. There are twice as many long positions as short, as per Glassnode data. That crowding places most stops under obvious swing lows.
As more traders enter the long position, the downside liquidity is enriched, making it more attractive for the exchanges to do their thing.
Here is how the game often plays. Market makers see where stops cluster and where the most liquidations occur. Price starts moving in that direction and long liquidations trigger, forced sells hit the book as market orders, the drop accelerates, and a sharp wick ‘rekts’ the long position. If price breaks quickly with stronger spot volume, the move looks like a flush, not a breakdown. If it holds below the liquidation price level with heavy spot selling, shorts likely take control and push for further bearish market trends.
